David Barr Kirtley

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Thoughts Experiments: Newcomb’s Paradox and Kavka’s Toxin

February 10, 2009 by David Barr Kirtley Leave a Comment

Here are two interesting thought experiments I came across on Wikipedia:

Newcomb’s Paradox

A person is playing a game operated by the Predictor, an entity somehow presented as being exceptionally skilled at predicting people’s actions … The Predictor can be presented as a psychic, as a superintelligent alien, as a deity, etc. … The player of the game is presented with two opaque boxes, labeled A and B. The player is permitted to take the contents of both boxes, or just of box B … Box A contains $1,000. The contents of box B, however, are determined as follows: At some point before the start of the game, the Predictor makes a prediction as to whether the player of the game will take just box B, or both boxes. If the Predictor predicts that both boxes will be taken, then box B will contain nothing. If the Predictor predicts that only box B will be taken, then box B will contain $1,000,000. By the time the game begins, and the player is called upon to choose which boxes to take, the prediction has already been made, and the contents of box B have already been determined. That is, box B contains either $0 or $1,000,000 before the game begins, and once the game begins even the Predictor is powerless to change the contents of the boxes. Before the game begins, the player is aware of all the rules of the game … The only information withheld from the player is what prediction the Predictor made, and thus what the contents of box B are.

Kavka’s Toxin

An eccentric billionaire places before you a vial of toxin that, if you drink it, will make you painfully ill for a day, but will not threaten your life or have any lasting effects. The billionaire will pay you one million dollars tomorrow morning if, at midnight tonight, you intend to drink the toxin tomorrow afternoon. He emphasizes that you need not drink the toxin to receive the money; in fact, the money will already be in your bank account hours before the time for drinking it arrives, if you succeed. All you have to do is … intend at midnight tonight to drink the stuff tomorrow afternoon. You are perfectly free to change your mind after receiving the money and not drink the toxin.

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Geek's Guide to the Galaxy is a podcast hosted by author David Barr Kirtley and produced by Lightspeed Magazine editor John Joseph Adams. The show features conversations about fantasy & science … Read more

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Geek's Guide to the Galaxy is a podcast hosted by author David Barr Kirtley and produced by Lightspeed Magazine editor John Joseph Adams. The show features conversations about fantasy & science … Read more

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David Barr Kirtley

David Barr Kirtley is the host of the Geek’s Guide to the Galaxy podcast, for which he’s interviewed over four hundred guests, including George R. R. Martin, Richard Dawkins, Paul Krugman, Simon Pegg, Margaret Atwood, Neil deGrasse Tyson, and Ursula K. Le Guin. His short fiction appears in the book Save Me Plz and Other Stories.
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